If my aunt had balls...

She’d be my uncle.  There’s an article in the Guardian today where they have canvassed cabinet Ministers as to Labour’s prospects in the next election.  A sort of ‘view from the bunker’ if you will.  Surprise, surprise they are upbeat and optimistic – at least for the benefit of the press.  The cause of their optimism is perhaps a little delusional though.

Ministers were buoyed by the Guardian/ICM poll finding that if the economy picks up in advance of an election - a mighty if - the Labour vote could increase by as much as eight points. The finding confirmed the volatility of the electorate.

It is indeed a mighty if – there’s no sign of the economy picking up in time for an election in 2010, and even if it did the visible indicators would inevitably be lagging behind.  It’s also a pretty hefty could.

It also plays (again) on this polling volatility that Labour are pinning their hopes on.  It isn’t true though.  The polls have followed a pretty sure pattern since October 2007 – Labour have fluctuated between the middle twenties and the low thirties.  The Tories have fluctuated between the low forties and the upper forties.  That’s a solid pattern and not a wild swing.  There’s a lot less hope out there than they like.