Tuesday, December 06, 2016

Short-circuiting Brexit

God but the endless peregrinations and peseverations about Brexit are trying. Yes, we know that the Government isn't offering a running commentary. Yes, we know that the EU is going to be extra extra hard on the UK to punish us for leaving. Yes yes, all Tory MPs are parochial thickies who've never been east of Dover. Christ. And there's going to be months and months more of this, regardless of the result of the Supreme Court litigation (although that'll be worth it for seeing how Mance and Sumption disagree with each other).


So let's just cut to the chase. Here's what the shape of the eventual deal will be (and feel free to call me an idiot again in 2019 for getting them all wrong, when we've been flung into outer darkness).


If there's one thing we're definitely sick of hearing it is that you can't be a member of the single market without accepting freedom of movement of people. Fine. So we won't be a member of the single market. That was pretty bloody obvious on the morning of the 24th. So a deal will be cut:


Free trade in goods;
Reduced UK budget contributions (notionally towards maintaining common standards regulation);
Access to financial markets governed by Solvency II style regulatory equivalence;
Continued close military & intelligence co-operation;
Free movement of workers.


That last one? Well, the Treaty of Rome set out the four fundamental freedoms that underpin the EU. Everyone (approximately) now sees the first of these as the "free movement of persons". The actual text of the Treaty, however, refers to the free movement of "workers" and grants the freedom of movement specifically to accept "offers of employment actually made". A reasonable compromise, therefore, would be for the UK to allow immigration into the UK of any EU citizen who has been offered a job in the UK.


Anyway, that's what should happen. And I think we all know by now how good I am at making these predictions.

Wednesday, November 30, 2016

Gotterdammerung

Well. I think it's fair to say that, from the perspective of a socially liberal, metropolitan public school Conservative in 2016, political matters have developed not necessarily to our advantage. Having had for a decade a leader of the Conservative Party who had the same sort of childhood, went to the same sort of school, and had the same sort of instincts as I did, it's hard to adjust to the new reality where everything from my accent to my social sogginess is suddenly deeply unfashionable.


It is also quite hard to adjust to the fact that everything I thought I understood or knew about politics has turned out not to be true (although my doom-laden predictions for Labour seem to be holding up reasonably well). I never thought that Trump would even get the Republican nomination, let alone the Presidency. The world seems to be coming as a bit of a surprise at present.


Anyway, it's been hard to think of anything to say from my new perspective as an outsider that wasn't either trite or depressing. I have no idea what Theresa May thinks about anything. I no longer have any confidence in my own views of what will happen. And I find the whole tone of current political debate depressing beyond words. Ho hum.


I'm therefore going to channel the spirit of Marechal Foch: "My centre is giving way, my right retreating. Situation excellent, I am attacking."



Tuesday, June 28, 2016

Labour meltdown

In my last post I put an optimistic spin on what Labour might be able to do in response to Brexit, and I still wasn't desperately positive. But there's a compelling case that it could be much, much worse.

I started my Labour analysis by assuming that the coup to remove Corbyn would be successful. That in itself throws up all sorts of problems, but it's indescribably worse if the coup is unsuccessful. Here's a version of what might happen next:

The motion of no confidence (or whatever the technical term is for the vote today) is passed easily. Corbyn refuses to resign. The PLP get 50 or more MP/MEPs to nominate a single challenger (presumably Watson or Eagle) and Corbyn announces that he will contest the election, and that NEC rules mean he is automatically on the ballot.

The PLP don't agree with that, but the NEC (which is marginally pro-Corbynish) uphold Corbyn's view in the face of massive protests by the membership. Corbyn wins the vote by a reduced margin and is returned as leader.

What the actual fuck do Labour do next? Answers on a postcard please.

Some predictions

Having deliberately not written about the Referendum before it happened, because I found almost all the commentary and discourse around it so damn depressing, I am going to stick my neck out about what's going to happen next.

Tories

I think it's hard to see an outcome where Boris does not get onto the members' ballot. So far the only other declared Leaver running is Liam Fox (the Disgraced Liam Fox, as he's formally known), and I can't see him being the final choice for members. If Boris does make it, he'll almost certainly be elected. I'm conflicted about this. I've always liked Boris, and he is (I thought) on exactly the open, liberal, non-ideological wing of the Tories that hits my buttons. Against that, of course, he is a manipulative, treacherous, lying weasel. So, conflicted.

Anyway, whether it's Boris or Theresa May I think the Tory strategy is pretty much the same. Campaign for leader on a 'compromise' approach whereby details of access to the single market vs. free movement will be negotiated, but the ultimate endpoint is some form of Euro-fudge. Call a General Election for, say, 13 October and set out negotiating details (such as they are) in the manifesto. Win the election and then hope for the best.

Labour

Hoo boy. I'm a lot less clear about what Labour will do next, because I'm not even sure there will be any such thing in a month or so. Let's be optimistic first of all. Let's assume the coup against Corbyn works, he is removed and either Tom Watson or Angela Eagle take over without an election. The PLP should not then be  a problem, but there will be a big disconnect with the members. Assuming that can be overcome, Labour then need to come up with a policy on Europe.

But Labour are in more of a bind than the Tories here. They really can't argue for the full withdrawal/pull up the drawbridge option, because none of them agree with it. But if they don't they expose their northern seats to an obvious attack from UKIP that Labour won't listen to their own voters and members (as already shown by dethroning the High Sparrow). That's such a potent attack line that I can see Labour struggling to defend it. So maybe they have to argue for a more extreme vision. But then, that puts them into conflict with their urban professional vote (that, again, will have been enraged by deCorbynisation). Not a pretty picture.

UKIP

Easy peasy. "Betrayal! Treachery! You, the ordinary decent people of Britain, voted to leave. And what do these Quisling politicians do? They try and weasel in by the back door. Vote UKIP for a proper leave." Nasty, but it's going to be bloody effective.

Liberal Democrats

The first good news for the Lib Dems since 2010. Offer a platform of a second referendum, with a view to remaining in the EU. Impractical and highly unlikely ever to be achieved, but that's what Liberal Democrat political positions have always been. Throw in a couple of contentious bar charts and we're back in business lads! Particularly effective if Labour opt to shore up the north and abandon the cities.

Scotland

Good for the SNP too, but they have to be careful not to overplay their hand. The temptation will be (as Sturgeon showed immediately) to say that Brexit is a material change in circumstances and warrants a second referendum. But (despite the instant opinion polls) I'm not sure that this is a slam dunk. In 2014, Scotland voted to remain when independence was sold as being virtually zero-impact (same currency, same head of state, both members of the EU etc) and when oil was US$100pb. Independence now would mean joining the Euro and setting up a customs barrier at Berwick when oil is US$45pb. If the SNP lose a second referendum that really is it for a generation.

And there we are. It's Labour's future that looks bleakest, but there;s plenty of scope for bleakness all round.

Brexit blues

Anything happen while I was away?

For what it's worth, I was a Remainer. This was because although I've never been a particular fan of the EU, and would probably not vote to join it if we were not already members, I thought whatever benfits might result were not worth the economic, political and diplomatic pain and trauma of unraveling a 40 year relationship. Still, we are where we are now and there's little point in rehashing all that. The question is, where are we?

One of the biggest deficiencies of the Leave campaign was a persistent failure to spell out exactly what "Leave" meant. Albanian models, Canadian models, Norwegian models, Serbian models - all of them were raised, but none of them were defended in any depth. So despite the apparent clarity of the question, the answer doesn't actually get us very far.

By (very sensibly) declining to invoke Article 50 on the morning of the result, David Cameron has ensured that we now have a bit more time to thrash out what answer we are looking for. This really is something you would have expected the Leave campaign to be on top of but there we are.

There is, in fact, a perfectly good reason the Leave campaign ran on vagueness. The Leave vote was, effectively, won on the back of votes from people who feel left behind by globalisation and want much less immigration. The UKIP campaign deliberately sought these votes out. Many if not most of the Tory leavers, by contrast, stand for an open economy, open borders, and a sort of turbo-charged liberalism. Hey, me too but if this had been the tenor of the Leave campaign they'd have been lucky to get 15-20%. So what they did was hold their nose and pander to the anti-immigration ticket while presumably secretly planning to ignore it if they won. I don't think this shows Boris, Gove et al in a particularly good light.

What should we do? Fucked if I know, frankly. But the people have spoken, and now it's up to our politicians to try and parse their answer into an outcome that is as un-disastrous as possible. That's going to have pretty serious implications for all the main parties - without even considering the fact that at least two of them are going to be having leadership elections.

Wednesday, May 04, 2016

Peak Guardian

I was trying to think of a clever way to introduce this, by Gary Younge, on Gerry Adams's use of the word "nigger" on Twitter. But I can't.
To judge Adams, who has a life’s work of internationalism and antiracist solidarity, by a single tweet borders on the grotesque. People should be assessed on the body of their work, not just on a single off-colour statement. That doesn’t mean the statement should be ignored. But to fetishise it above a person’s record does a disservice not just to the person but to the issue.
"The body of their work". Nope, words fail.

Danny Finkelstein reminds me (in a piece that references an article that was the subject of almost the first Reptile blogpost all those years ago) that Michael Gove's nickname for the Guardian was the Prada-Meinhof Gang. It is, I suppose, comforting to see that the paper hasn't lost its terrorist sympathies despite Seumas's absence.

Thursday, April 28, 2016

Tom Hollandest

Tom Hollander is the actual best.
When I met Yoko Ono, it was quite different: I spoke for about 15 minutes while she didn’t say one word in return. Not one word. I’d been sat next to her at dinner because the person doing the placement was drunk. There was nowhere for her to turn. Except to her neighbour, which she did eventually, after I’d been reduced to, ‘That’s a really nice shirt you’re wearing, where did you get it?’ Admittedly my chat had become a bit stilted, because in my head a voice was screaming ‘Why won’t you talk to me you fucking snotty cow you think you’re so special when the only reason anyone’s even heard of you is because you broke up not only the greatest band the world has ever known but also one of the few things this country has had to be proud of since we defeated the Nazis.’
But you can’t say that sort of thing, so instead I went quiet.

Wednesday, April 27, 2016

Strike!

There are a load of op-eds in support of the Doctors' Strike, some good and some not. All of them, however, tend to go big on the difficult and high pressure job that doctors do, and how important the NHS is to us all. A lot of them talk about patient safety, and how dangerous the proposed new contract is. A lot tug on emotional heartstrings:
What he meant by all this (we’d sit up at night talking and waiting for trains to go by in the distance) is that this was the first place he’d known any real kindness and he wished to return it. For most of us it will be the last place we know kindness. How sad that we have allowed it to fall into the hands of dreadful people who know no compassion at all, not even for themselves.
But since reading the FT on the strike yesterday, I find myself automatically completing these otherwise very convincing articles with "and that's why doctors must be paid slightly more on Saturdays."

I have to admit that this does slightly detract from the force of the argument.

Tuesday, April 12, 2016

Once more with feeling

I suppose in a way it's quite interesting to be in at the birth of a new political meme. This is the story that David Cameron personally intervened to block EU plans to tackle offshore trusts. Let's look at how the story was reported back when it actually happened:
New legislation planned in Brussels is set to heap fresh costs and paperwork on families’ financial planning, as well as leaving their affairs open to unwanted public scrutiny.  
British lawyers and tax experts are baffled by the potential implications. Most are bitterly opposed to the costs and intrusion that could result. The use of trusts or what the EU would define as “legal arrangements” is commonplace in Britain and Ireland, but not elsewhere in Europe. As a result many run-of-the-mill transactions between British individuals, or between individuals and financial institutions, would fall within the net of the law if applied to the UK. Similar transactions in Europe would not be affected, lawyers say.
Essentially the European Parliament weren't happy with proposed legislation to create a publicly available register of the beneficial owners of EU companies (which pretty much existed in the UK anyway) and broadened the scope to include all trusts as well. This was probably because EU legislators don't really know what trusts are, because they're only used in the UK & Ireland, and they think they sound dodgy.

The reaction of the British Government (and on the legal sector more widely) was that this was disproportionate and not particularly helpful to the wider aim. This was set out in the Lords by Lord Newby:
'The government opposes the mandatory registration requirement for trusts [which] unlike companies are used for a range of purposes, such as benevolence, inheritance, protecting vulnerable people and family support. As such, the implications for privacy are far greater, and trusts therefore warrant different treatment ... We consider registration of trusts to be a disproportionate approach and, in particular, one which undermines the common-law basis of trusts in the UK.'
This was what David Cameron had written to the President of the European Council about, and what the UK Government continued to lobby the EU about. Was this an attempt to assist tax avoidance? No.
The Treasury is now negotiating with the EU Council presidency and other member states to agree a compromise that would limit the scope of obligations on trusts to those holding financial assets, which the UK would satisfy through existing reporting obligations for trusts holding financial assets, domestic reporting requirements and automatic exchange of tax information agreements.
So in other words, the UK Government wanted to prevent a measure designed to prevent money laundering being applied so widely that it would affect hundreds of thousands of otherwise private legal arrangements. And it was successful in doing so.
The publication of details concerning the beneficiaries of trusts gave rise to an intense debate, as beneficiaries of a trust are in a very different position than, say, shareholders of a company. In many circumstances, beneficiaries are not aware of their position and often include minor and vulnerable family members. Accordingly, after intense lobbying by professional bodies, the final version of the 4th Money Laundering Directive has limited the circumstances in which information concerning trusts ought to be published on the new registers. 
A triumph for British diplomacy in preventing the negative and unintended consequences of a half-baked piece of legislation introduced by ignoramuses. Phew.

Now let's see what happens to that diplomatic triumph in light of the (entirely unconnected) scandal about offshore companies. First, the FT.
David Cameron personally intervened in 2013 to weaken an EU drive to reveal the beneficiaries of trusts, creating a possible loophole that other European nations warned could be exploited by tax evaders.
This is where the fun starts. Because the very first line of that is a touch misleading. It gives the impression that David Cameron's intervention was exceptional, or even that it was done in a personal capacity. It wasn't. It was a letter from a Head of Government setting out that Government's position - a position that was re-iterated in Parliament. David Cameron signed a letter written by civil servants explaining the UK's position on proposed legislation. I suspect he does that quite frequently. Anyway, at least the FT got the substance of the intervention right.

The Guardian, on the other hand, takes this and runs with it.
David Cameron intervened personally to prevent offshore trusts from being dragged into an EU-wide crackdown on tax avoidance, it has emerged.
Again with the personal intervention, but now it's about offshore trusts, and a crackdown on tax avoidance. Taking the first point first, it should go without saying (but apparently doesn't) that a register of beneficiaries of EU-registered trusts couldn't affect offshore trusts. Taking the second point, a directive that was about money laundering is now apparently part of a crackdown on tax avoidance. And, for good measure, "it has emerged" in this case means "a public letter that was reported on at the time, and remains on the Government website". Deep Throat this isn't.

And it really is as simple as that. A legally-supported UK Government objection to an ill-thought through piece of European heavy-handedness becomes David Cameron personally intervening to prevent the EU from cracking down on offshore trusts and tax avoidance. Sigh.