We are almost exactly in the midterm of this parliament, and we are at the very bottom of a brutal economic downturn. It is unsurprising that when several thousand people from across the country are asked how they will vote, many opt for populist parties like Ukip, which has a strong media presence and a charismatic leader. But, thankfully, political victories are not won in polls. When someone actually goes into a ballot box, they are not presented with a list of parties, but a list of candidates, and a specific job – whether it is a council seat or a parliamentary one. Faced with that choice, disaffected Tories will grit their teeth and vote Conservative.
Saying that you'll vote for UKIP in an opinion poll is the cheapest form of protest that there is. Voting for them in the European Elections is the second cheapest. Actually voting for them in a General Election, where the choice is between Cameron and Ed Miliband? I suspect that will prove to be a bit too pricy for most would-be 'Kippers.