Thursday, May 06, 2010

Scores on the Doors

Scores on the Doors

Prediction time then.  It’s a tricky one this, though, because I really only have the sketchiest idea of what’s going to happen.

The real problem is distinguishing between those little persistent gut instincts that you really ought to be listening to, and the overwhelming tide of wishful thinking that threatens to drown out everything else.  So, what follows may be uncanny, or it may just be drivel.  A few predictions anyway, bearing in mind that no-one really knows yet.

1.  The Tories lead Labour by more than the final polls suggest.

2.  The Tories will do disproportionately better in England than elsewhere.

3.  Labour will collapse in the South.

4.  Ed Balls will lose his seat – along with at least one other cabinet minister.

5.  It will be an absolute toss-up for second place.

6.  The Tories will win a reasonable majority.

Phew.  More than a few hostages to fortune there.  So lets throw caution to the wind and go for a votes prediction:

Con  38

Lab  28

LD   28

And seats?  Now this is much trickier…

Con  340

Lab  195

LD    90

Now I know I’ve been listening to that wishful thinking!  See you on the other side…

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