Tuesday, July 03, 2007

Gordon Brown's Bounce

I reckon this is the dog that didn't bark.
In the Times today there is a poll showing Labour with a 3 point lead, equating to a 4 point "bounce".
4 points at a time when:
- GB has received universal and hagiographic press coverage;
- He has said nothing of moment, enabling him to hide the left/right contradiction of expectation that awaits him in his party;
- The British People, being kind (and stupid) are genuinely pleased for him, he finally has his chance;
- He gets to 'be the change', which after 10 years is refreshing;
- He has just swapped out his cabinet, and therefore is seen to hire and fire, and stamp his authority on Govt. Looks good that sort of thing;
- DC is being shot at from Left and Right;

My guess is that all this ghastliness at the moment will also help - it has been handled well thus far (with one exception...)

But, it should be so much more than 4 points, given all these factors. If DC can avoid panic, and if Tim Montgomerie (himself a sane and helpful commentator) persuade his readership of oddballs, loonies and pillocks to rein their necks in a bit, I think things are going to plan for the Conservatives, whatever Gordo's useful idiots and strange fellow travellers say.

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