Daniel Davies suggests
that the reason that there is a rise in support for the BNP is the remodelling of the Conservative Party under David Cameron - that the tiny minority of British 'fascists
' no longer feel at home under the blue banner and have moved over to the BNP. Unprovable of course, but reasonably convincing. Except that the areas where the BNP are starting to make inroads aren't mainly in Conservative areas - and even where they are it seems to be the Labour vote that's every bit as affected.
The reason, I suspect, is that in the main new BNP voters are not terribly politically sophisticated and will often vote for a party out of habit/tribal instinct etc. What seems to be happening (at least according to the shrieks of pain emanating from Polly) is that such tribal voters are widely re-considering their habits. Endless newspaper analyses of whether and how the Conservatives have changed will do that to the right; loans for peerages and the War on Iraq will do that to the left. Make people re-evaluate their long unquestioned allegiances and you'll generate churn. Throw into the mix that a small minority of people are bigoted zealots and you'll see an increase in support for the party that matches their beliefs.
On top of that, add a whole plethora of news and comment of the sort that Laban
so cogently writes on, and it's not hard to see why support for the BNP increases. Especially among the sort of person who doesn't like politicians and doesn't trust the media