Wednesday, October 03, 2007

Conventional Wisdom

I sometimes wonder if it's just me. This makes me sound like a Daily Telegraph letter-writer, but it's true. As Daniel Hannan writes in today's Telegraph it just doesn't feel as if the Labour Party are 11 points clear in the polls. It feels close than that. Equally, looking over the Atlantic, although received wisdom is that the election is basically a shoe-in for Hillary Clinton, that doesn't quite feel right either. I dare say that she will win, but I simply don't think it's quite the fait-accompli that is so widely assumed.
My gut instincts (and these really are worth nothing) are that if Labour does go for an Election next week, and I have to say it's looking more likely than ever, Brown would be lucky to retain a majority the size of what he has already. Similarly next year in the States, I think that it will be as much of a nail-biter as the last two have been. The great thing about the web is that these things can come back to bite you, however, I will say that the last time I felt this disconnect was during the Liberal Democrat election last year - Chris Huhne was the bookies favourite, but it never felt right. It wasn't right in that instance, and I'm similarly uneasy this time.

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